Afghan Normal

Just about every behavior can be modeled mathematically if given enough time and data.  Yet so many folks around here build management systems and measure Afghan progress through western standards.  There is precious little analysis around here, so no one has really analyzed what “Afghan Normal” is.  I assigned homework to my staff and they looked at me as if I had two heads.  We have had a functioning government apparatus for three years now, so we should have the data to tell us what their “normal” looks like, to know when the train is going off the rails.  After a week of struggling, they came up with bubble charts, and glossy phrases.  I can’t blame them, most of what goes on around here is not based in much analytical or statistical rigor.  I did a quick assessment on Afghan Payroll and found that it goes in wild swings, so much so that some districts don’t even get paid for a month, but it does settle out and it’s predictable.  For us it’s abhorrent, but for them its In-Shalah! (God willing) and it works for them.  So what’s wrong with it, I ask the auditor trolls?  Well, that just won’t do they tell me.  Why?, I ask since I have data that says this is normal.  Well, its just not right, he says, and they will have to conform.  Hmmm, how about we send a memo to the Minister and President telling them we need to flatten the Payroll bumps and make it “right”, I say sarcastically.  Wonderful, says the audit troll.  Really?